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Well, election day is almost here. I hope you plan on voting, but ONLY if you have been paying attention!


Below, we have updated our previous Senate predictions, added predictions for every gubernatorial race, and also took a stab at the net change in House seats. It would be too much of a challenge  for us to call each individual House election, so we will only give you our guess at the change.

If these turn out to be close, or spot on, expect us to brag endlessly. If they fall flat, let’s pretend it didn’t happen.




Seats not up for election:   R – 30     D – 32     I – 2


The no brainers:


Alabama – R

Delaware – D

Hawaii – D

Idaho – R

Illinois – D

Maine – R

Massachusetts – D

Mississippi – R

Montana – R

Nebraska – R

New Mexico – D

Oklahoma 1 – R

Oklahoma 2 – R

Rhode Island – D

South Carolina 1 – R

South Carolina 2 – R

Tennessee – R

Texas – R

West Virginia – R

Wyoming – R


Total so far:   R – 44       D – 38     I – 2


The Leans:


Alaska – R

Arkansas – R

Kentucky – R

Louisiana – R (This is the prediction even if there is a runoff)

Michigan – D

Minnesota – D

New Jersey – D

Oregon – D

South Dakota – R

Virginia – D


Total so far:   R – 49     D – 43      I – 2


The Toss – Ups:


Colorado – R

Georgia – R (This is the prediction even if there is a runoff)

Iowa – R

Kansas – R

New Hampshire – D

North Carolina – R


Final tally:  R –  54   D –  44   I – 2


Count the two independents, King and Sanders as Democrats, and it’s a 54-46 split.


Final prediction has the GOP picking up 9 seats, with no loses.


*Our previous prediction, having Brown winning out, was based on the trend in New Hampshire continuing. Essentially, the gap had been closing in the race, allowing Brown to make it a virtual tossup. However, Shaheen still holds an edge in the polls. We are cautiously calling it for her instead.




Not up:   


R – 7    D – 7


Easy to call:


Alabama – R

California – D

Hawaii – D

Idaho – R

Iowa – R

Minnesota – D

Nebraska – R

Nevada – R

New Mexico – R

New York – D

Ohio – R

Oklahoma – R

South Carolina – R

South Dakota – R

Tennessee – R

Texas – R

Vermont – D

Wyoming – R


Total so far:    R – 20        D – 12


A Little Harder:


Arizona – R

Arkansas – R

Georgia – R (This is our prediction even if there is a runoff)

Michigan – R

New Hampshire – D

Oregon – D

Pennsylvania – D


Total so far:   R – 24    D – 15




Alaska – I

Colorado – R

Connecticut – R

Florida – D

Illinois – R

Kansas – D

Maine – R

Maryland – R

Massachusetts – R

Rhode Island – R

Wisconsin – R


Final Tally:  R – 32   D – 17   I – 1


By far, the most difficult calls on this list are: Florida, Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island, Colorado, Kansas, Illinois, and Alaska. There is a STRONG chance our calls for these races will go the other way.




Current breakdown:  R – 233      D – 199     Vacancies – 3


Change:  R +12 = 245 .  We believe the Republicans will control about 245 seats after the dust settles on all races (any recounts included). Generic ballot polling, as well as built in district advantages, support the conclusion that the GOP will gain seats. The real question is how many. It would be awesome for this 12 seat prediction to be spot on, but we don’t expect it to be. +5/-8 is a reasonable ‘plus or minus’ on our call, making a range of anywhere from 5-17 pickups conceivable in our view.

This article was last edited on Monday November 3rd at 9:40 PM. No further edits will be made to these predictions.